OCUFA Briefing Note: 2020 September Confirmations
September 17, 2020
September confirmations data from the Ontario Universities Application Centre (OUAC) are the earliest publicly available indicator of fall enrolment at Ontario universities. They show the number of students who have confirmed their acceptance for “full-time, year-one, fall-entry, undergraduate university study.” Although not all confirmations become fall registrants, and total enrolment figures depend also on a number of other factors (e.g., part-time enrolment, retention in upper years, transfers from other institutions, recruitment and retention in graduate and second entry professional programs, and graduation rates), in the normal course the confirmation data signal the direction enrolment is headed. 2020 is unlike previous years however.
On the face of the provincial aggregates, there is nothing alarming about the statistics for this fall. The number of confirmations from Ontario high school students applying to enter university directly is up by almost two per cent (“101” secondary school). Together with the number of confirmations from applicants who graduated in previous years or are from other jurisdictions (“105” non-secondary), the number of confirmations overall is almost three and a half per cent higher than last year.
PROVINCIAL TOTAL | 2019 | 2020 | change |
101 – secondary school | 73,625 | 74,915 | 1.8% |
105 – non-secondary | 29,748 | 31,978 | 7.5% |
Total | 103,373 | 106,893 | 3.4% |
Even at the level of the provincial totals, it is difficult to know what the data may betide. From an operational perspective, the numbers themselves will not necessarily make a significant difference in the classroom. Financially, however, the disparities in tuition charged to domestic and international students mean that the enrolment mix will weigh heavily on institutions’ income. Increases in domestic enrolment sufficient to offset a reverse trend in international enrolment would not be enough to compensate for the corresponding shifts in revenues from student tuition and other fees.
The public OUAC data are not granular enough to offer insight into how the balance between domestic and international student confirmations have shifted. International student confirmations come from both the “101” Ontario secondary and “105” ranks.[1] In any case, it is not possible to know how many international students have deferred entry to the winter or later terms, are taking advantage of remote learning, or adopting other tactics due to the pandemic and provincial and federal government conditions for their attendance. Without a survey, it is similarly impossible to know the degree to which applicants from within the province are confirming acceptance because of labour market conditions, for example, or whether they are choosing one institution over another because of proximity to home or the availability of remote learning opportunities.
Confirmations might increase simply because a higher percentage of offers is accepted by applicants, but also depend on institutional strategies for recruitment. In the face of the pandemic and uncertain enrolment prospects, for example, some institutions may also have issued more offers than otherwise would have been sent. Whatever is the case, as the following table demonstrates, there is wide variation between institutions – ranging from a decline of 17 per cent to an increase of 20 per cent. At the institutional level, significant shifts from one year to the next are common enough that some of the current year changes may be attributed to “normal” swings, but clearly these patterns cannot be considered normal course trends. Unfortunately, there simply are too few data to estimate the potential financial impact in provincial aggregate, let alone for each institution. It is clear nonetheless that some institutions face much starker challenges than others.
Full-time, first year, fall entry undergraduate confirmations by institution
| 101 – secondary school | 105 – non-secondary | Total | ||||||
2019 | 2020 | change | 2019 | 2020 | change | 2019 | 2020 | change | |
Algoma | 127 | 114 | -10.2% | 80 | 73 | -8.8% | 207 | 187 | -9.7% |
Brock | 3,394 | 2,714 | -20.0% | 745 | 718 | -3.6% | 4,139 | 3,432 | -17.1% |
Carleton | 4,314 | 3,884 | -10.0% | 1,590 | 1,563 | -1.7% | 5,904 | 5,447 | -7.7% |
Guelph | 4,312 | 4,260 | -1.2% | 521 | 520 | -0.2% | 4,833 | 4,780 | -1.1% |
Guelph-Humber | 1,014 | 1,086 | 7.1% | 264 | 346 | 31.1% | 1,278 | 1,432 | 12.1% |
Guelph-Total | 5,326 | 5,346 | 0.4% | 785 | 866 | 10.3% | 6,111 | 6,212 | 1.7% |
Lakehead | 835 | 718 | -14.0% | 549 | 549 | 0.0% | 1,384 | 1,267 | -8.5% |
Laurentian | 1,018 | 904 | -11.2% | 441 | 627 | 42.2% | 1,459 | 1,531 | 4.9% |
Hearst | 19 | 20 | 5.3% | 5 | 8 | 60.0% | 24 | 28 | 16.7% |
McMaster | 5,601 | 6,433 | 14.9% | 1,192 | 1,441 | 20.9% | 6,793 | 7,874 | 15.9% |
Nipissing | 527 | 429 | -18.6% | 194 | 209 | 7.7% | 721 | 638 | -11.5% |
OCAD | 665 | 732 | 10.1% | 755 | 733 | -2.9% | 1,420 | 1,465 | 3.2% |
Ottawa | 4,779 | 5,045 | 5.6% | 4,251 | 4,100 | -3.6% | 9,030 | 9,145 | 1.3% |
Queen’s | 3,353 | 4,351 | 29.8% | 1,699 | 1,557 | -8.4% | 5,052 | 5,908 | 16.9% |
Ryerson | 6,685 | 6,568 | -1.8% | 3,309 | 3,572 | 7.9% | 9,994 | 10,140 | 1.5% |
Toronto | 10,033 | 9,325 | -7.1% | 5,523 | 6,677 | 20.9% | 15,556 | 16,002 | 2.9% |
Trent | 1,984 | 1,848 | -6.9% | 390 | 422 | 8.2% | 2,374 | 2,270 | -4.4% |
UOIT | 1,504 | 1,413 | -6.1% | 539 | 567 | 5.2% | 2,043 | 1,980 | -3.1% |
Waterloo | 5,529 | 6,243 | 12.9% | 2,025 | 2,825 | 39.5% | 7,554 | 9,068 | 20.0% |
Western | 4,170 | 5,168 | 23.9% | 1,613 | 1,392 | -13.7% | 5,783 | 6,560 | 13.4% |
Brescia | 207 | 201 | -2.9% | 64 | 39 | -39.1% | 271 | 240 | -11.4% |
Huron | 299 | 299 | 0.0% | 153 | 185 | 20.9% | 452 | 484 | 7.1% |
King’s | 562 | 644 | 14.6% | 176 | 174 | -1.1% | 738 | 818 | 10.8% |
Wilfrid Laurier | 4,410 | 4,103 | -7.0% | 807 | 869 | 7.7% | 5,217 | 4,972 | -4.7% |
Windsor | 2,124 | 2,070 | -2.5% | 481 | 459 | -4.6% | 2,605 | 2,529 | -2.9% |
York | 6,160 | 6,343 | 3.0% | 2,382 | 2,353 | -1.2% | 8,542 | 8,696 | 1.8% |
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Mark Rosenfeld, Ph.D
Interim Executive Director
Ontario Confederation of University Faculty Associations
17 Isabella Street
Toronto, Ontario, Canada M4Y 1M7
Tel: 416-270-6859
E-mail: [email protected]
Web: www.ocufa.on.ca
[1] According to the latest COU report on application statistics (for 2016), 6 per cent of registered applicants from Ontario high schools held student or other visas, and represented about 45 per cent of the total number of registered applicants holding such visas; Council of Ontario Universities, 2018, Application Statistics 2016.